Does Ethnicity Affect Ever Migrating and the Number of Migrations? The Case of Indonesia.

This paper is the first to examine to what extent ethnicity affects ever migrating and the number of migrations across the lifespan for the case of internal migration in Indonesia. We use all five waves of the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) to study migration behaviour of respondents belonging to some of the largest ethnic groups in Indonesia. Our logistic regression results show that the Minangkabau, Betawi, Madurese, Balinese, Buginese and Makassarese, and Sasak, Bima and Dompu are less likely to ever migrate than the Javanese. Using only migrants and controlling for the first migration and other characteristics, truncated negative binomial regression results show that, in comparison with the Javanese, the Minangkabau and Banjarese have a higher expected number of migrations while the numbers are lower for the Betawi and Balinese. Thus, ethnicity contributes to ever migrating as well as the number of migrations, but we find that the differences between the ethnic groups diminish for the latter. These results also point out that a higher likelihood of ever migrating does not always correspond with a higher number of migrations, highlighting the importance of studying migration count to complement the study of migration as a one-time event.

The causal effect and autonomous buffering mechanisms of large-scale internal migration on carbon emissions: evidence from China.

Large-scale internal migration and unprecedented urbanization have dramatically promoted economic growth in China, resulting in a rapid surge in carbon emissions in urban areas. However, few studies have investigated the causal effect of mass internal migration on carbon emissions or examined the effects of autonomous mitigation mechanisms, such as population agglomeration and technological innovation. This study identifies the causal effect of internal migration on prefectural-level cities' carbon emissions in China by employing an instrumental variable and further investigates the buffering effect of population agglomeration and technological innovation using mediating effect models. The results show that mass internal migration has a substantial impact on increasing carbon emissions in prefectural-level cities. If the proportion of inflowed migrants rises by 1% point, prefectural-level cities' carbon emissions per capita will increase by 1.9%. A series of robustness tests confirms the result. Population migration also promotes population agglomeration and technological innovation in urban areas. Two autonomous mechanisms buffer 11.9% and 5.4% of prefectural-level cities' incremental carbon emissions per capita caused by population migration, respectively. This study highlights the crucial role of population agglomeration and technological innovation in mitigating carbon emissions in cities experiencing significant migrant inflows and provides several implications for formulating relevant policies.

Vidas bagaços! Os processos de vulnerabilização enfrentados pelos trabalhadores-migrantes nos canaviais de São Paulo e da Bahia / Bagasse lives! The vulnerability processes faced by migrant workers in the sugarcane fields of São Paulo and Bahia, Brazil

Resumo Objetivo: compreender os processos de vulnerabilização enfrentados pelos trabalhadores-migrantes canavieiros diante do avanço da mecanização. Métodos: abordagem qualitativa pautada na abordagem metodológica da Reprodução Social da Saúde proposta por Juan Samaja, nas dimensões biocumunal, tecnoeconômica e política. Foram realizadas 18 entrevistas semiestruturadas com trabalhadores-migrantes canavieiros no período de abril de 2020 a dezembro de 2021. Resultados: na dimensão tecnoeconômica verificou-se que na usina A o trabalhador se tornou polivalente, com a presença do trabalho em equipe e a introdução de tecnologias para aumentar o controle do trabalho. Na usina B, os trabalhadores encontram piores condições de trabalho devido à irrigação, à irregularidade dos terrenos, à presença de pedras e à exposição às queimadas. Na dimensão biocomunal, foram identificados potencialização dos acidentes, uso de agrotóxicos, distúrbios hidroeletrolíticos e problemas cardiovasculares. Na dimensão política, foi observada a precariedade da assistência à saúde do trabalhador canavieiro. Conclusão: a intensificação da mecanização na colheita de cana-de-açúcar não melhorou as condições de trabalho dos cortadores, ao contrário, provocou a perpetuação de velhos e a inserção de novos processos de vulnerabilização.

Abstract Objective: to understand the processes of vulnerability faced by sugarcane migrant workers in the face of advancing mechanization. Methods: this study adopts a qualitative approach based on the biocommunity, techno-economic and political dimensions of the social reproduction of health proposed by Juan Samaja. In total, 18 semi-structured interviews were conducted with sugarcane migrant workers in the period from April 2020 to December 2021. Results: in the techno-economic dimension, it was found that in Mill A workers have become polyvalent, with the presence of teamwork and the introduction of technologies to increase work control. In Mill B, the workers identified worse working conditions due to irrigation, irregular terrain, rocky geography, and exposure to burnings. In the biocommunity dimension, the greater chance of accidents, the use of pesticides, hydroelectrolytic disorders and cardiovascular problems were identified. In the political dimension the precariousness of health care for sugarcane workers was identified. Conclusion: the intensification of mechanization in sugarcane harvesting has not improved the life of sugarcane workers, on the contrary, it has caused the perpetuation of old vulnerabilities and the insertion of new ones.

Taylor's law for exponentially growing local populations linked by migration.

We consider the dynamics of a collection of n>1 populations in which each population has its own rate of growth or decay, fixed in continuous time, and migrants may flow from one population to another over a fixed network, at a rate, fixed over time, times the size of the sending population. This model is represented by an ordinary linear differential equation of dimension n with constant coefficients arrayed in an essentially nonnegative matrix. This paper identifies conditions on the parameters of the model (specifically, conditions on the eigenvalues and eigenvectors) under which the variance of the n population sizes at a given time is asymptotically (as time increases) proportional to a power of the mean of the population sizes at that given time. A power-law variance function is known in ecology as Taylor's Law and in physics as fluctuation scaling. Among other results, we show that Taylor's Law holds asymptotically, with variance asymptotically proportional to the mean squared, on an open dense subset of the class of models considered here.

Adapting to change: Exploring reverse migration as a coping strategy among internal migrants in Bangladesh.

The COVID-19 pandemic has slowed down economic growth and disrupted labor markets throughout the world, including Bangladesh. A significant proportion of people lost income sources in the formal and informal sectors, triggering them to return to villages, and the transition introduces us to the new phenomenon known as "reverse migration". This study explores and synthesizes the COVID-19 induced changing patterns of migration and returnees' coping strategies based on their level of preparedness as well as resource mobilization. A mixed-method research approach was applied to conduct the research. The study area was Rangpur (Pirganj, Taraganj, and Kaunia). For collecting primary data, semi-structured survey questionnaires were used and conducted 84 field survey data, 12 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), 6 In-Depth Interviews (IDIs), 2 Key Informant Interviews (KIIs), and participant observations. Descriptive statistics and thematic analysis with the assistance of NVivo software were used to present the findings of this study. The findings of the study revealed that the COVID-19 pandemic fueled informal job holders' returning to their homeland due to a low level of preparedness and mobilized resources. The study found that most respondents were in severe level unemployment. As a result, a lack of physical assets, they could not start new income-generating ventures and encountered food insecurity due to unexpected price hikes. The alarming result indicates that internal reverse migration is gendered, and the adverse impact is more prevalent among female migrants rather than male migrants. Along with the governmental organizations, the highlights of this study would be essential for non-governmental organizations and development practitioners.

Influence of Place of Birth on Adult Mortality: The Case of Spain.

We use a unique data set from Spain and we estimate life expectancy at age 50 for males and females by place of residence and place of birth. We show that, consistent with expectations regarding the influence of early conditions on adult health and mortality, the effects of place of birth on adult mortality are very strong, irrespective of place of residence. Furthermore, we find that mortality levels observed in a place are strongly influenced by the composition of migrants by place of birth. This is reflected in a new measure of heritability of early childhood conditions that attains a value in the range 0.42-0.43, implying that as much as 43 percent of the variance in Spain's life expectancy at age 50 is explained by place of birth. Finally, we find evidence of the healthy migrant effect, that is, positive health selection of migrants, at a regional level.

Age-specific sex ratios: Examining rural-urban variation within low- and middle-income countries.

The balance of men and women in society, captured by sex ratios, determines key social and demographic phenomena. Previous research has explored sex ratios mainly at birth and up to age five at national level, whereas we address rural-urban gaps in sex ratios for all ages. Our measures are based on the United Nations data on rural and urban populations by age and sex for 112 low- and middle-income countries in 2015. We show that rural sex ratios are higher than urban sex ratios among children and older people, whereas at working ages, urban areas are dominated by males. Our analysis suggests that the urban transition itself is not driving the gap in rural-urban sex ratios. Rather, internal migration seems to be key in shaping rural-urban sex ratio divergence in sub-Saharan Africa, while both internal migration and mortality differentials appear to be the predominant mechanisms driving sex ratio gaps in Latin America.

Linking internal and international migration over the life course: A sequence analysis of individual migration trajectories in Europe.

Because internal and international migration are typically conceptualized and measured separately, empirical evidence on the links between these two forms of population movement remains partial. This paper takes a step towards integration by establishing how internal and international migration precede one another in various sequenced relationships from birth to age 50 in 20 European countries. We apply sequence and cluster analysis to full retrospective migration histories collected as part of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe in 2008-09 and 2017, for individuals born between 1950 and 1965. The results show that nearly all international migrants engage in internal mobility at some point in their lives. However, individual migration trajectories are delineated by the order of internal and international moves, the duration and timing of stays abroad, and the extent to which individuals engage in return international migration. Institutional and economic conditions shape the diversity of migration experiences.

Urban residence and elevated blood pressure among migrant women in South Africa.

This paper demonstrates that internal migration may be contributing to rising non-communicable disease risk in low- and middle-income countries in gendered and geographically differentiated ways. With 2018 baseline data from the Migrant Health Follow-Up Study, we investigate the relationship between internal migration and elevated blood pressure (BP) among 2163 rural-origin men and women in South Africa, testing for sex differences. To examine the influence of place, we test whether the migration-BP relationship differs by migrants' destination locations, controlling for household composition, social support, prior migration, and housing quality. We find that migration is associated with elevated BP only among women, and that this association is greatest for migrants living in Tembisa township. Our research underscores that gender and migration are important social determinants of noncommunicable disease risk in low-resource, rapidly-urbanizing settings.

Association between internal migration experience and depressive symptoms: analysis of PSID data.

BACKGROUND: Depression is on the rise globally. Additionally, the United States has a high level of population mobility. The main aim of this study was to provide a reference for improving the mental health of internal migrants by investigating the relationship between internal migration experience and depressive symptoms. METHODS: We analysed data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). We included PSID data from the 2005 to 2019 waves in which all respondents were asked about their internal migration experience and depressive symptoms. This study included 15,023 participants. T tests, chi-square tests, multiple logistic regression methods were performed and fixed effects model. RESULTS: In the sample, the prevalence of depressive symptoms was 4.42%. The risk of depression in internal migrants was 1.259 times (OR = 1.259, 95% CI = (1.025-1.547, p < 0.05) that of nonmigrants. Internal migration experience was significantly positively associated with female depressive episodes (OR = 1.312, 95% CI = 1.010-1.704, p < 0.05) and increased risk of becoming depressed at a young age (OR = 1.304, 95% CI = 1.010-1.684, p < 0.05). The association between internal migration experience and depressive symptoms was more significant for participants who might move (OR = 1.459, 95% CI = 1.094-1.947, p < 0.05). In addition, different internal migratory causes are associated with depressive symptoms to varying degrees. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the need for greater policy attention to mental health inequalities between Internal migrants and those who never move away from their hometown in the United States. Our study provides a foundation for further research.

Internal migration and utilization of reproductive and maternity care among women in Pakistan: evidence from a recent National Survey.

Background: During the last decades, migratory behavior has had a key role in population growth and redistribution in Pakistan. Migration has far-reaching socioeconomic implications for individuals and society at large that could influence the health integrity of Pakistani women. This study aimed to describe the migration patterns and drivers as well as their association with adequate access to reproductive and maternal care among married Pakistani women aged 15-49. Methods: The data from the 2017-18 Pakistan Demographic Health Survey (PDHS) was used to extract the information on the explanatory (sociodemographic and migration backgrounds) and outcome variables (unmet needs for family planning, adequate antenatal care, and delivery at health facilities). Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to examine the relationship between these explanatory and outcome variables before and after adjustment for sociodemographic inequalities. Results: In unadjusted models, the odds of having adequate ANC and delivery at health facilities were approximately 2 to 4 times higher in those living (urban non-migrant), moving to (urban to urban, rural to urban), or leaving the urban areas (rural to urban) as compared to rural non-migrants; likewise, the odds of the unmet needs for family planning was about 20-50% lower in the same migration streams compared to rural non-migrant. However, after adjustment for sociodemographic inequalities, most of these associations attenuated and only the association of urban to urban migration with unmet needs for family planning and the association of urban non-migrant with delivery at health facilities remained significant. Conclusion: Although the findings suggest that Internal migration flows, particularly those to urban areas (urban to urban and rural to urban), could be associated with better access to reproductive and maternity care among married Pakistani women aged 15-49 years; adjustment for sociodemographic inequalities, particularly education and wealth, nullified this association to a great extent. This has important implications for current policies and interventions in Pakistan and calls for policy reform and women's rights advocacy to enhance the literacy level of young Pakistani girls through well-tailored interventions, maintaining them at school.

Local Ties as Self-Reported Constraints to Internal Migration in Spain.

The internal migration literature has identified various factors that deter migration and encourage staying, but has been less concerned with people's own reports about what makes it difficult for them to migrate or makes them want to stay. We explore factors that make it difficult to change the place of residence-from here on denoted as constraints-reported in the Spanish survey on Attitudes and Expectations of Spatial Mobility in the Labour Force (N = 3892). These constraints were uniquely asked from all respondents through an open-ended question, regardless of their migration intentions. We find that many self-reported constraints correspond to factors that have previously been associated with decreased migration propensities. In order of frequency, respondents reported ties to family and friends, ties to their residential environment, financial limitations, and ties to work as constraints to migration. Our results further show that the likelihood of mentioning ties to family and friends as constraints decreased with age, was higher for women than for men and for people who lived close to most of their social network than for those who did not. Mentioning ties to the residential environment as constraints was positively associated with being partnered, and also with living in one's birthplace. People who were unemployed were less likely to mention ties to work and were more likely to report financial limitations as constraints than people who had a permanent contract-whereas being self-employed was positively associated with mentioning ties to the residential environment.

No going back: COVID-19 disease threat perception and male migrants' willingness to return to work in India.

This paper explores the causal link between the likelihood of re-migration to cities and the perceived threat of contracting COVID-19 using novel data on male reverse migrant workers in India. We find that reverse-migrants who believe there is a significant chance of contracting COVID-19 display a significantly lower likelihood of returning to their urban workplaces, regardless of their duration of migration. On the other hand, longer-duration migrants display a lower perceived chance of contracting COVID-19 than shorter-duration migrants. We also contribute to the migration literature by linking behavioural attributes to the decision to migrate. We find that more impatient individuals display a heightened belief regarding contracting COVID-19 and a higher projected likelihood of returning to work. Finally, we find that while both loss and risk-averse individuals have a lower projected likelihood of returning to urban workplaces, only loss-averse individuals perceive that their chance of contracting COVID-19 is lower.

Children's internal migration and subjective wellbeing of older parents left behind: Spiritual or financial support?

Introduction: Against the background of population aging and large-scale internal migration, this study uses an ordered logit with two-way fixed effects to examine the effect of children's internal migration on the subjective wellbeing of parents left behind. The study is based on the China Family Panel Studies database. Methods: Data were obtained from CFPS (China Family Panel Studies), and ordered logit with two-way fixed effects was used to test the total effect of children's internal migration on subjective wellbeing of parents left behind, and KHB test was used to separate intergenerational spiritual support and intergenerational financial support to examine the intergenerational support preferences of parents left behind. Results: The results show that children's internal migration has a significant negative effect on the subjective wellbeing of parents left behind, mainly through the reduction of intergenerational spiritual support. Furthermore, intergenerational financial support significantly mitigates this negative effect. There is heterogeneity in the direction of the total wellbeing effect across parents' preferences, as well as in the masking effect of financial support. However, the effect of financial support never fully offsets the effect of spiritual support. Discussion: To cope with the negative effects of children's internal migration on parents, positive measures should be taken to change parental preferences.

The end of urban sprawl? Internal migration across the rural-urban continuum in Switzerland, 1966-2018.

In high-income countries, migration redistributed populations from congested city centres into the sparsely populated outskirts, raising challenges to environmental and population health and the conservation of biodiversity. We evaluate whether this periurbanisation process came to a halt in Switzerland by expecting a decline in internal migration and a renewed residential attractiveness of urban agglomeration centres (i.e., re-urbanisation)-two recent trend changes observed in Europe. Relying on data from censuses, registers and surveys, we describe trends in the intensity, geography and sociodemographic differentials of migration across consistently defined urban agglomeration density zones between 1966 and 2018. Although the overall intensity of migration declined, the rate increased among the working age population in part because of the societal diffusion of tertiary education. The dominant urban-bound migration flows are increasingly confined within agglomerations over time. After the diffusion of periurbanisation down the city hierarchy between 1966 and 1990, we observe the emergence of re-urbanisation in some agglomerations and sociodemographic groups around 2000. However, this phenomenon has been temporarily inflated by period-specific transformations in Swiss society. More recently, the process of periurbanisation intensified again and expanded more and more beyond official agglomeration borders.

Food Insecurity and Dietary Deprivation: Migrant Households in Nairobi, Kenya.

The current study focuses on food consumption and dietary diversity among internal migrant households in Kenya using data from a city-wide household survey of Nairobi conducted in 2018. The paper examined whether migrant households are more likely to experience inferior diets, low dietary diversity, and increased dietary deprivation than their local counterparts. Second, it assesses whether some migrant households experience greater dietary deprivation than others. Third, it analyses whether rural-urban links play a role in boosting dietary diversity among migrant households. Length of stay in the city, the strength of rural-urban links, and food transfers do not show a significant relationship with greater dietary diversity. Better predictors of whether a household is able to escape dietary deprivation include education, employment, and household income. Food price increases also decrease dietary diversity as migrant households adjust their purchasing and consumption patterns. The analysis shows that food security and dietary diversity have a strong relationship with one another: food insecure households also experience the lowest levels of dietary diversity, and food secure households the highest.

Love is Elsewhere: Internal Migration and Marriage Prospects in China.

Migration and marriage are major life events that might interact and be jointly decided. Places with good labor market opportunities may or may not provide good marriage options. In this paper, I quantify gains and losses in marriage prospects for unmarried migrants and natives during the population redistribution driven by internal migration. I also examine how the experiences differ by individual characteristics and regional factors. The analysis measures marriage prospects using the availability ratio (AR) with adaptive assortative matching norms for every unmarried individual from sample data of the 2010 China population census. The AR quantifies the intensity of competition for suitable partners in the local marriage market. I compare (1) migrants' current AR with an alternative AR if the migrant returned to the hometown and (2) natives' AR with a hypothetical AR if all migrants returned to their hometown. The first comparison shows that among migrants moving for labor market opportunities, most women have higher ARs (better marriage prospects) in the place of residence than in their hometown, especially those of rural origin. In contrast, migrant men's ARs mostly decrease after migration except for the best educated. The second comparison reveals small negative externalities of internal migration on ARs for native women but positive impacts for some native men. The results suggest a conflict between labor market opportunities that dominate internal migration decisions and marriage market opportunities in China. This study demonstrates a method to quantify and compare marriage prospects and extends the literature on how migration and marriage interact.

Male Fertility and Internal Migration in Rural and Urban Sub-Saharan Africa.

Subnational differences in male fertility within sub-Saharan African countries have not been explored, nor the differences in male fertility according to migration status been sufficiently probed. We study divergences in rural and urban male fertility and investigate the relationship between male fertility and migration across 30 sub-Saharan African countries. We employ 67 Demographic and Health Surveys to estimate completed cohort fertility among men aged 50-64 according to migration status. Overall, we find that urban male fertility has declined faster than rural male fertility, widening the gap between the sectors. Rural-urban migrant men have lower fertility than their rural non-migrant counterparts. Men migrating within the rural sector have similarly high fertility as rural non-migrants, while urban-urban migrant men have even lower fertility than non-migrant urban men. Using country-fixed effects models, we find that among men with at least secondary education, differences in completed cohort fertility by migration status are widest. When we consider the timing of migration in relation to the timing of the birth of the last child, we observe that migrant men are a select group, having around two children less than non-migrant rural men. There is also evidence of adaptation to destination, though to a lesser extent. Furthermore, migration within the rural sector does not seem to be disruptive to fathering. These results indicate that rural-to-urban migration has the potential to delay rural fertility decline, and that urban male fertility is likely to decline further, especially as the proportion of urban-to-urban migration increases.

Urban exodus? Understanding human mobility in Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic using Meta-Facebook data.

Existing empirical work has focused on assessing the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions on human mobility to contain the spread of COVID-19. Less is known about the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the spatial patterns of population movement within countries. Anecdotal evidence of an urban exodus from large cities to rural areas emerged during early phases of the pandemic across western societies. Yet, these claims have not been empirically assessed. Traditional data sources, such as censuses offer coarse temporal frequency to analyse population movement over infrequent time intervals. Drawing on a data set of 21 million observations from Meta-Facebook users, we aim to analyse the extent and evolution of changes in the spatial patterns of population movement across the rural-urban continuum in Britain over an 18-month period from March 2020 to August 2021. Our findings show an overall and sustained decline in population movement during periods of high stringency measures, with the most densely populated areas reporting the largest reductions. During these periods, we also find evidence of higher-than-average mobility from high-density population areas to low-density areas, lending some support to claims of large-scale population movements from large cities. Yet, we show that these trends were temporary. Overall mobility levels trended back to precoronavirus levels after the easing of nonpharmaceutical interventions. Following these interventions, we found a reduction in movement to low-density areas and a rise in mobility to high-density agglomerations. Overall, these findings reveal that while COVID-19 generated shock waves leading to temporary changes in the patterns of population movement in Britain, the resulting vibrations have not significantly reshaped the prevalent structures in the national pattern of population movement. As of 2021, internal population movements sit at an intermediate level between those observed pre- and early phases of the pandemic.

Validity of Self-Report for Ascertaining HIV Status Among Circular Migrants and Permanent Residents in South Africa: A Cross-Sectional, Population-Based Analysis.

While expanded HIV testing is needed in South Africa, increasing accurate self-report of HIV status is an essential parallel goal in this highly mobile population. If self-report can ascertain true HIV-positive status, persons with HIV (PWH) could be linked to life-saving care without the existing delays required by producing medical records or undergoing confirmatory testing, which are especially burdensome for the country's high prevalence of circular migrants. We used Wave 1 data from The Migration and Health Follow-Up Study, a representative adult cohort, including circular migrants and permanent residents, randomly sampled from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in a rural area of Mpumalanga Province. Within the analytic sample (n = 1,918), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of self-report were calculated with dried blood spot (DBS) HIV test results as the standard. Among in-person participants (n = 2,468), 88.8% consented to DBS-HIV testing. HIV prevalence was 25.3%. Sensitivity of self-report was 43.9% (95% CI: 39.5-48.5), PPV was 93.4% (95% CI: 89.5-96.0); specificity was 99.0% (95% CI: 98.3-99.4) and NPV was 83.9% (95% CI: 82.8-84.9). Self-report of an HIV-positive status was predictive of true status for both migrants and permanent residents in this high-prevalence setting. Persons who self-reported as living with HIV were almost always truly positive, supporting a change to clinical protocol to immediately connect persons who say they are HIV-positive to ART and counselling. However, 56% of PWH did not report as HIV-positive, highlighting the imperative to address barriers to disclosure.